Jules Malavieille

Spatialized multi-species fisheries modeling to simulate different management scenarios and evaluate the impact of marine protected areas.

Development of a dynamic model to analyze the effect of fishing effort distribution on catches, biomass, and system sustainability.

Result: identification of conditions to improve catches while preserving ecological balance, and highlighting trade-offs between exploitation and conservation.

Example: determining in which configurations a marine protected area can increase overall catches while maintaining populations.

Early detection of regime changes in dynamic systems to anticipate critical transitions (instabilities, tipping points).

Development of a method combining dynamic modeling and statistical clustering to analyze time series and identify early warning signals of abrupt changes.

Result: highlighting weak signals that allow anticipating sudden changes in system behavior and reducing associated risks.

Example: identifying the risk of collapse of a harvested population early enough to adapt management strategies.

Modeling of an eco-epidemiological system (host–pathogen–predator interaction) to analyze the spread of an infection in a biological system.

Development of a dynamic model coupling growth, infection, and predation, with analysis of equilibria and their stability to understand system regulation mechanisms.

Result: highlighting a regulation effect of predation on infection (healthy herd effect), as well as critical thresholds beyond which the system becomes unstable or collapses.

Example: identifying under which conditions predation pressure can limit an infection without causing population collapse.